FT.com / Technology - A bright future in the cloud

FT.com / Technology - A bright future in the cloud

A bright future in the cloud
By Shane Robison

Published: March 4 2008 17:36 | Last updated: March 4 2008 17:36

Nicholas Carr is right – the future of computing lies in the internet cloud. The technology industry is shifting to a new model in which people and businesses no longer install packaged software applications on their computers. Instead, they use their web browsers to access a wide range of “cloud services”, available on demand over the internet.

Without question, this marks an exciting new era in computing.

But there is a risk of over-simplifying this picture. The “cloud” itself – a vast data-processing infrastructure – represents a critical foundational piece. But on its own, it cannot deliver the rich experience that people and companies want as they look for a better way to access information, enjoy content, and communicate.

To realise the full potential of this new model, the IT industry needs to think about the cloud as a platform for creating new services and experiences that we have yet to imagine.

For example, cloud services could eveolve that are intelligent enough to anticipate people’s needs. In this next phase, searching will be done for users, not by them. This would be accompanied by a seamless, consistent experience across all of the different devices users own, and all the on-demand services they care about.

This leaves the IT industry with a lot of hard work to do. It requires a new set of core building blocks to deliver this new category of services; it needs smarter devices and more intelligent networks; and software will be the “secret sauce” that powers these new services and shapes the quality of the user experience.

The power of the cloud happens when there is continuous interaction between a device – smartphone, laptop, TV – and the network. A simple example: it is 2pm and your calendar shows you are booked on a flight to Toronto at 6pm. Your device should anticipate this trip and gather relevant information – weather forecast for the Toronto area, status update on the flight, recommended route to the airport based on latest traffic conditions, and so on. In this scenario, the step forward is the pervasive, proactive and personalised nature of cloud services.

Some may say they heard this during the 1990s internet bubble but at that time it was not possible to use the internet as a platform for anything more than static pages. Broadband changes all that but brings us to the need for a higher level of intelligence built into devices and networks, and the software that ties everything together.

Nicholas Carr correctly points out that the shift to cloud computing will dramatically reduce the cost of IT. But this shift goes far beyond cost savings; it marks a quantum-leap in the user experience.

Much attention so far has focused on software as a service, a proven model for making software applications available on demand over the internet – it frees customers from the expense and hassle of having to install and maintain applications locally.

But Saas is the tip of the iceberg. In the future, everything will be delivered as a service, from work life to entertainment to communities. In an “Everything as a service” world individuals and businesses will customise their computing environments and shape their experiences – from individual consumers to the largest global enterprises, which will increasingly turn to dynamic cloud-based offerings to meet their most demanding computing requirements.

As we approach the tipping point where computing moves into the cloud, there are five trends I believe worthy of close attention:

1. The digital world will converge with the physical world: Starting in about 1995, the mantra was, “Everything is virtual. Geography is irrelevant”. But from 2008, factors such as your physical location will mean a lot. Cloud services will be increasingly aware of context, down to details such as time, weather, where a user is headed, and which friends or business colleagues are nearby.

2. The era of device-centric computing is over. Connectivity-centric computing will take centre stage. The question “When am I going to get that one device that does everything I can imagine?” will be flipped on its head as any number of devices will provide easy access to all services and content. Devices become interchangeable, with cloud services becoming the focal point.

3. Publishing will be democratised. A global internet population of 1.2bn people now has the tools to produce everything from books and magazines to music and videos. This represents a massive disruption of old publishing models. People will soon be able to print on demand any book ever published; warehouses of physical inventory in the publishing world will no longer be necessary.

4. Crowd-sourcing is going mainstream. Fortune 50 companies will access top talent on a global basis via the internet, saving millions of dollars in professional areas as diverse as accountants, advertising professionals, attorneys, engineers, etc. Reputation systems will lower the risks involved by exposing poor performers.

5. Enterprises will use radically different tools to make key business decisions, including systems to predict the future. A merger is taking place between the structured data that fuels business intelligence and the unstructured data of the web. This combination will advance business intelligence. At the same time, market-based systems enabling accurate predictions of the future will become common practice in the enterprise.

By moving from the desktop to the cloud, we have an opportunity to reshape the computing industry and, more importantly, create more dynamic services that enrich lives and improve how we do business.

To realise this potential, we must innovate by building a higher level of intelligence into the next generation of devices, networks and software. When we are successful in providing a dramatically better user experience, we will be poised for the next wave of growth.

Shane Robison is executive vice president, chief strategy and technology officer, HP
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008